Double-Digit Growth Forecast
The finance minister projected on 11 August 2026 that the Syrian economy would expand by 11.3 percent this year, up from about 4 percent in 2025, and by 9.7 percent in 2027. He said the momentum would place Syria among the fastest-growing economies in the world in 2026.
He described the projected expansion as real and broad-based, led by services, trade and agriculture after a good rainy season, along with a revival in oil, gas and mineral activity.
Revenue More Than Doubles
Budget revenue is expected to reach about $8 billion in 2026, compared with $3.5 billion in 2025. Roughly 75 percent of this year's revenue comes from sustainable sources rather than one-off receipts.
One-off revenue would be channeled into investment projects in war-affected areas and into support for entrepreneurship, the minister said.
IMF in Agreement
The projection aligns with the International Monetary Fund, which forecasts growth above 10 percent for Syria in 2026. The Fund has assessed the state budget as on track to meet its 2026 revenue targets.
The minister tied the improving outlook to reforms aimed at improving the business environment, fighting corruption and maintaining disciplined public spending.
Tax Overhaul and a Startup Fund
A new tax system is intended to stimulate the economy, encourage the private sector and ease the tax burden on low-income earners.
The finance ministry, working with the communications and information technology ministry, is establishing a national fund to back startups in modern technology, financed partly from telecommunications proceeds.
Recovery Not Yet Felt
Despite the figures, the minister acknowledged that faster growth does not automatically improve daily life given the scale of wartime destruction and poverty. He said high poverty remained one of the largest challenges facing the economy.
He said many sectors are expected to return to pre-2011 production levels by 2030, and that several years of sustained high growth would be needed to repair the war's effects.