Double-Digit Growth Forecast
A mission from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Syria's economy will grow by more than 10 percent in 2026, with strong growth continuing into 2027. The forecast followed a visit to Damascus by a team of Fund experts led by Ron van Rooden between 19 and 23 July 2026 to assess the economic situation and review progress on reforms.
The mission said the recovery is supported by improving output in the productive and service sectors and the continued implementation of economic reforms.
Drivers of Recovery
The Fund said the Syrian economy began regaining strength during 2025, helped by improved consumer and investor confidence and the return of about 1.5 million refugees, which supported a gradual reintegration into the regional and global economy and offset the effects of a drought that had hit agriculture.
Growth above 10 percent this year rests on a strong agricultural rebound after better rainfall, higher oil and gas production, improved electricity supply, and continued expansion in trade and services, alongside a marked rise in visitor numbers.
Public Finances and Inflation
The central budget recorded a limited surplus in 2025, and revenues are expected to rise in 2026 on the back of higher tax and customs receipts, increased hydrocarbon income, and exceptional revenues including telecommunications licensing fees and fuel transit fees.
Inflation rose during 2026, driven mainly by external factors such as higher import prices for fuel and food, but it is expected to ease in 2027 if external pressures recede and sound fiscal and monetary policies continue.
Reform Priorities
The Fund stressed the importance of continuing to strengthen public financial management, mobilizing revenue, and accelerating the rehabilitation of the banking sector and its governing legislation. It also urged reinforcing anti-money-laundering and counter-terrorism-financing frameworks and improving the quality of economic statistics.
The statement pointed to the success of the central bank in managing the rollout of the new currency, describing completion of banking-sector reform as a priority for strengthening financial intermediation and facilitating domestic and international payments.
Boost to Confidence
Finance Minister Mohammad Yasser Barnieh welcomed the assessment, saying it reinforces confidence in the government's reforms aimed at restoring macroeconomic stability and supporting recovery. He said the findings would help entrench prudent fiscal policies and create an environment conducive to private-sector growth and investment.